The Thesis Exchange
Turn Any Macro Thesis into a Tradeable Index
There is no clear way to trade macro convictions!
- AI will dominate the world
- Solana becomes biggest consumer blockchain
- US manufacturing rivals China by 2032
- Solar becomes primary energy source of multiple G20 nations
Millions of people hold macro theses about the world. Yet every available instrument to trade them has a structural problem:
Thesis Index: Tradeable Indices backed by Prediction Markets
Anyone with a macro thesis about the world can now bet on their conviction with Thesis Index (tokenised index backed by binary event contracts).
The instrument carries none of the unnecessary noise of stocks or options, while providing a clean way to trade directional, time-bound macro convictions with the simplicity of an equity ETF.
There's a disparity between thesis playing out and the trading instrument not performing proportionally. I've experienced it myself, which led me to build Thesis Index.
In the last six months, $SOL price dropped roughly 60%! Meanwhile, Solana's daily transaction volume kept growing. As an ecosystem believer, my conviction played out while I still lost money because in reality $SOL has little correlation with ecosystem success and chain performance.
In the near future, the right instrument will be $SOL.c, a Thesis Index whose underlying is prediction positions on Solana's on-chain performance like DEX volume, active addresses, daily transactions, etc. Not the token price.
Become the gateway for institutions to deploy capital in prediction markets
Research like the SLAM paper has shown prediction markets are cheaper and better at execution than Options to trade directional convictions on an institutional scale for categories like Bitcoin and Elections.
The next growth phase for prediction markets is becoming the underlying for indices.
Indices have proven to work well for both institutions and retail:
- CDX & iTraxx (Credit Default Swap Index) had $9.75 trillion in notional volume in 2024. Mostly used by institutions for hedging, they're also a clear way to express macro views: buy CDX if you believe a recession is coming.
- S&P 500, NIFTY 50, CSI 300 reached $11 trillion in AUM by turning a simple thesis - bullish on the US, India, or China economy into something anyone can hold.
We at Cleopetra are building that layer to bring institutional capital and retail investors to prediction markets.
Infinite markets. Infinite publishers. Infinite traders.
Markets are infinite: Polymarket, Kalshi, Hyperliquid and others can now create markets for any real-world event, making the supply structurally unlimited.
Publishers are infinite: Anyone with domain expertise can publish a Thesis Index. AI agents can handle the complexity of selecting and managing underlying positions, lowering the barrier to entry to zero.
Traders are infinite: Crypto removes every geographic and institutional barrier to participation. Anyone, anywhere, can now bet on their conviction.
Cleopetra is the network at the intersection of all three.
Like pump.fun made memecoins infinite, Cleopetra makes macro conviction infinite.
Anyone with a macro thesis can now become a fund manager
Our GTM is to onboard the best publishers and power them with the infrastructure to launch, manage, and monetise their conviction every time their audience trades it.
- Phase 1: Researchers & Contrarians
Research firms regularly publish directional macro views but have no clear way to monetise them beyond ad revenue. Communities around figures like Bryan Johnson believe deeply in longevity and healthcare disruption but have no way to trade that thesis. We give both a simple way to turn their conviction into a tradeable index. - Phase 2: Institutions
As liquidity improves, Thesis Index will become the most capital-efficient instrument for institutions hedging binary macro risk like elections, Bitcoin, regulatory outcomes.
4+ Years of experience in growing consumer crypto products
- Mukesh is a systems nerd. I love selling products.
- We're college dropouts building consumer crypto together for the last 4+ years.
- First company CandyPay, a crypto checkout solution used by 500+ teams and devs, including Balaji's Network School
- Shipped multiple consumer crypto products used by 200K+ unique wallets
- Before pivoting to prediction markets, Cleopetra was a pro liquidity provisioning terminal that hit $30M+ in deposits in just 5 months of private beta
If you're a capital allocator or a domain expert who believes in our thesis, we're raising a round and curating our first set of Thesis Index publishers. DM me on Telegram to schedule a call.